Wednesday, May 31, 2006

BE CAUTIOUS

I FEAR MARKET MIGHT FALL TODAY BY 500 OR MORE
I WIL BOOK PROFIT IN SOME STOCKS WHICH I HAD RECOMMENEDED LAST WEEK N PICK THEM LATER AT A LOWER PRICE IF CORRECTION SETS IN.....AVOID TRADING FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS

surya pharma......dewan housing......neyveli........manugraph....mahindra ugine....manali petro......srei infra....kei ind......lic housing fin......sutlej...suraj diamonds.....guj alkalies.......dcw....man ind....satnam overseas

Thursday, May 25, 2006

STOCKS I AM HOLDING AS ON 24TH MAY 06

I AM STILL SITTING ON 35% CASH

HYDERABAD IND
MANUGRAPH
HIRAN ORGOCHEM
NEYVELI LIGNITE
PARAS PETRO
IND SWIFT LAB
SURYALAXMI
RAIPUR ALLOYS
RELIANCE COMM
ANJANI FABRICS
JJ EXPORTS
NATIONAL STEEL
DEWAN HOUSING
SURYA PHARMA
AARVEE DENIM
MANALI PETRO
SREI INFRA
MAHINDRA UGINE
AARTI IND

WHIRLPOOL
AGRO DUTCH
SYNCOM FORMULATION
JUPITER BIO
GRANULES
SANJIVANI PARENTAL
GUJ ALKA
IND GLYCOLS
KARUR KCP
KEI IND
SUTLEJ IND
SURAJ DIAMONDS
SATNAM OVERSEAS
MAN IND
DCW LTD
LIC HOUSING

DCW- SPECULATIVE CALL

ONE CAN KEEP A WATCH ON DCW...THE STOCK WAS TRADING ARND 13 WHEN I TOOK POSITION IN IT....THE NEWS IS IT MIGHT COMING WITH RIGHT ISSUE AT A PRICE OF 18.....SO THEY MIGHT PULL THE PRICE TO 25-30 IN THE NEXT 1 MONTH

ONLY RISK APPETITE INVESTORS SHLD TAKE POSITION IN SMALL QTYS

STOCKS I BOUGHT IN THE PAST 3 DAYS

MARKET HAS BEEN ON A DOWNTREND FOR THE PAST 8 DAYS...FIIS HAS BEEN SELLING....ANYWAYS I EXPECT THE MARKET TO SHOW LESS VOLATILITY POST EXPIRY....HOWEVER IT MIGHT FALL ANOTHER 500-800 LOOKING AT THE CURRENT TREND......HOWEVER I CAN START BUYING QUALITY STOCKS IN SMALL QTYS...SOME STOCKS I BOUGHT IN THE PAST 3 TRADING DAYS

GUJ ALKA
IND GLYCOLS
KARUR KCP
KEI IND
SUTLEJ IND
SURAJ DIAMONDS
SATNAM OVERSEAS
NATIONAL STEEL
MAN IND
DCW LTD
LIC HOUSING
HYDERABAD IND
RELIANCE COMM
MANUGRAPH
SURYALAXMI
SURYA PHARMA
AARVEE DENIM
MANALI PETRO
DCW IND

Monday, May 22, 2006

STOCKS PICKS N VIEWS

market fundamental doesnt change overnight.....india's story is still strong....correction has set in purely coz the valuations were running high on the current earning basis....the property story had always set my eyes popping......i believe those who r still gaining profit or suffering marginal loss on land stocks should book profit....there were many who were advising juss 10-15% cash holding n investing the rest in market which was juss going one way up due to the liquidity factor......juss wondering how they will use this oppurtunity to buy cheap.....i had been advising 50% cash levels for the past 2-3 months......those who r holding 50% cash can start buying in bits keeping in view a medium-longer term view
i am happy of the correction tht has set in......i have started my buying list today partially....i am still 40% in cash aft buying today
pple were expecting more......everything they buy were expecting it to start hitting circuit frm the very day.....all i can do is laugh....i had seen pple giving recommendations on http://www.poweryourtrade.com especially ashwani guj who used to give taregt 50% higher n i dont think i need to say anything for E - mathew .

the correction is mainly coz of the margin pressure coz of the liquidity.....brokers r selling stocks on margin funding.......i expect market to settle by thursday-friday....buy post tht one shld again expect juss marginal returns n not set rocketing targets

short term traders who used to ask stocks for 1-2 months...pity u guys....BYE BYE is all i can say

THE STOCKS THT I BOUGHT TODAY

granules down frm 120 to 80 now.....70 is the bottom it can go too
aarti ind.....frm 70 to 62.......looking very attractive
hyderabad frm 450 to 350
manugraph frm 275 to 225
paras petro frm .9 to .55
ind swift frm 115 to 88
hiran orgo chem......frm 125 to 99
suryalaxmi frm 200 to 150
aarvee denim frm 125 to 95
manali petro frm 20 to 13.5
surya pharma frm 135 to 90
srei infra frm 60 to 45

Thursday, May 18, 2006

my views n suggestions

1. Traders keep off....Might burn their hands real bad

2. Those investing fresh keep a minimum view of 3 months even if investing with a shorter term view

3. Market might n should fall another 500-700 points....buying might start emerging arnd 10500-10800 levels

4. Buy only quality stocks irrespective of midcap or large caps.....only quality doesnt help....valuation also need to be given a thought.....think 10 times b4 buying anything post 12-15 PE.....BUY IN INSTALLMENTS

5. Average only if the stock has fallen by 20%......n then more arnd 35% fall....dont start averaging juss on a mere 5-8% fall......THTS MY STRATEGY

AVOID ADDING OR AVERAGING MORE OF SPECULATIVE STOCKS

MARKET MIGHT REMAIN VOLATILE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.....POST WHICH I MIGHT START MY SHOPPING

KEEP A WATCH

HIGH INTEREST RATE......WEAKING RUPEE N HIGH CRUDE PRICE failed to keep the market down.....a fall was seen across the globe due to weaking commodities prices.....i expect the market to move sideways....n a further fall of 500-700 points shld be taken as a oppurtunity to buy in quality stocks....i am still sitting on 50% cash...play safe...oppurtunities will always comeby


DEWAN HOUSING....up 20% yest.....bought at 79 on friday.......action might take place in this counter......those who have been holding it for the past 12-15 months shld continue holding it for good return in the coming yr.....hold for a 9-12 months....can give superduper returns...

WHIRLPOOL....bck in action...10% up yest.....watch for a target for 45-50 soon...only for BRAVEHEARTS

NEYVELI LIGNITE......quality blue chip with a 93% promoters holding....targets tlked abt r high....minimum holding period 6-9 months.....again high targets r being tlked abt this stock

MRPL N IDBI....speculative buys...can see 15% in 10 days period

suryalaxmi cotton......value buy......available at a PE of 6

ANJANI FABRICS....getting accumulated by close circles...can explode any time......high targets....2-4 months period...ONLY FOR BRAVEHEARTS

S KUMARS NATION.....frm 58 to 70.....going quite strong...keep holding

HYDERABAD INDUSTRIES......REL COMM.......VALUE BUY....1 YR VIEW......SHLD GIVE MINIMUM 75-100% RETURNS......SAFE PLAY

PARAS PETRO.....suggested arnd .55....right now .90........buy on decline...those holding continue holding for a yr......multibagger

ind-swift labs......CAN BE BOUGHT IN SMALL QTY....MEDIUM TERM VIEW

JJ EXPORTS......can be bought 50% now

KIRLOSKAR ELECT.....KEEP A WATCH ON UPMOVE


I HOLD POSITION IN ALL THE ABOVE MENTION STOCKS

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

DOWNTREND OR CONSOLIDATION

THE MUCH NEEDED CORRECTION HAS ARRIVED....I EXPECT THE MARKET TO REMAIN WEAK TODAY AS WELL.....DEPENDING ON TODAYS FALL THE DIRECTION FOR TOMM MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND......MAYBE ANOTHER 350-400 DOWNSIDE FALL BUYING MIGHT ONCE AGAIN TAKEOVER THE MARKET........THUMBS UP FOR THE CORRECTION WHICH WILL MAKE WAY FOR CONSOLIDATION.

KEEP THE SHOPPING LIST READY....MIGHT LIST MY BUY LIST BY TOMM

Monday, May 15, 2006

HIRAN ORGOCHEM...........(Code No: 506170) (Rs.126)

THE STOCK WAS RECOMMENED ARND 100 LEVELS 2 WEEK BCK.....DETAILED REPORT IS BEEN SHARED NOW

Mumbai-based Hiran Orgochem has announced mind-boggling results for FY06 wherein sales increased by 98% but net profit skyrocketed by over 876% to Rs.13.4 cr. from Rs.1.4 cr. in FY05. The EPS for FY06 works out to Rs.17.4. Dealers say that the increase in turnover and profitability is mainly on account of the expansion and introduction of new products. Knowledgeable quarters are said to be active in the counter and the volume, too, has gone up. HOL manufactures bulk drugs like Ciprofloxacin Hydrochloride -USP. The company's plant at Panoli has an installed capacity of 240,000 Kgs.

HOL is a medium sized company founded in 1983, manufacturing pharmaceutical bulk actives and has grown to be one of the most successful and dedicated manufacturers of bulk actives. It provides services on a quick-turn, cost-effective basis and has successfully expanded its customer base and delivered solid operating returns. The global pharma market is projected to grow by 25% over the next year and provide it with a large and growing target market. Ciprofloxacin Hydrochloride is still ranked number one in its product portfolio followed by Enrofloxacin Base, Ciprofloxacin Base, Ciprofloxacin Lactate and Enrofloxacin Hydrochloride.

HOL posted excellent results during FY06 as enumerated above. The point in consideration, however, is that this net profit was arrived after making a huge tax provision of Rs.6.6 cr. The EPS on its expanded equity works out to Rs.17.5. Diluted EPS works out to Rs.19. HOL has maintained the dividend at 15%.

During the year, HOL allotted 15 lakh shares at a premium of Rs.120 per share on a preferential basis to the promoters taking its equity to Rs.7.7 cr. With reserves increasing to Rs.39.3 cr., the book value of the share works out to Rs.61. The promoters hold 39.4% in the equity capital, FIIs hold 2%, 14.8% is held by PCBs leaving 43.8% with the investing public.

HOL has also issued 23 lakh optionally fully convertible warrants (OFCWs). Each warrant is convertible at the sole option of the holder, any time on or after 1st April 2006 but before the expiry of 18 months from the date of allotment, into 1 fully paid up equity share at an exercise price of Rs.130 per warrant. The amount so raised has been utilized for doubling the production capacity from 480 MTA to 960 MTA and which commenced partial operation during FY06.

Coming to its future prospects, the pharmaceutical sector offers huge opportunities. The Indian pharmaceuticals industry, which was worth US $5.58 billion in 2003-05, grew at a CAGR of 17% in the last decade. According to McKinsey's projections, it is expected to grow to US $25 billion by 2010 and further to US$ 75 billion by 2020. There are, therefore, enormous opportunities for Indian pharma companies for exports in the overseas generics market, as drugs worth US$ 80 billion are go off patent by 2012 in USA. This throws up opportunities worth US$ 16 billion for generic companies assuming 80% price erosion after a drug goes off patent. Further, with the advent of the product patent regime earlier this year opportunities for growth through the CRAM (Contract Research and Manufacturing) model have also opened up.Molecules worth US$ 75 billion will go off patent by 2008 qualifying them for generic manufacture. This will accelerate competition amongst global pharma players. This in turn has translated into global generic players partnering cost effective API manufacturing Indian companies to produce these products. Due to its skills in process chemistry and expertise in low cost production base, the Indian pharma industry is expected to emerge as an outsourcing hub for the world generic pharma leaders. This will lead API manufacturing companies to go in for backward integration and optimize their low cost production bases to encash the opportunities and benefits. HOL is all set to grab a sizeable chunk of share in these growing opportunities.HOL has excellent prospects, as Ciprofloxacin has gone off-patent in January 2005 in most markets providing an opportunity to share the world market consumption of 15000 metric tones. Also, the growing demand in the domestic market will be around 2000-2200 metric tonnes per annum.HOL will increase its investments in marketing, particularly in Europe, by obtaining regulatory approvals like World Health Organisation's (WHO) Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP), European Certificate of Suitability. HOL will launch a couple of new products in FY07 and intends to acquire a good market share in coming years. It hopes to reduce cost and increase efficiency in all areas of operations by further increasing capacity

For FY07, HOL expects further organic growth in both revenue and net profit. Taking into account the impact of the increase in marketing, the full benefits of which will be realized in the medium-term, HOL's long-term profit forecast is positive. It is all set to achieve an EPS of Rs.24 in FY07 increasing further to Rs.27 in FY08. The shares are available at Rs.126 at a P/E of 7.4 on its FY06 earning and a forward P/E of just 5.3 on FY07 earnings. The industry P/E currently rules firm at 25 making investment in the HOL share quite attractive. The 52-week high and low of the share has been Rs.229/35.

MY TAKE : THE SHARE IS VERY ATTRACTIVE AT CURRENT LEVELS.......50% CAN BE INVESTED ARND CURRENT LEVELS N ANOTHER 50% ARND 100....A GOOD SOLID SUPPORT LEVEL....MANAGEMENT SEEMS TO BE HONEST

SAKTHI SUGARS Ltd. (SSL) (Code No: 507315) (Rs.258)

Incorporated in 1961, SSL manufactures sugar, industrial alcohol and soya products. It has also established a modern sugar unit with a crushing capacity of 2500 TCD, which commenced operations during 1994-95. The crushing capacity of the Sakthi Nagar Unit increased to 6000 TPD in October 1998. From 1st April 1993, Sakthi Soya, a group company, was merged into SSL. It has an installed capacity to produce 1,00,000 TPA of refined oil, de-oiled cakes, full-fat soya meal, soya flour flakes and texturised vegetable protein.

SSL has units / plants in Tamil Nadu and Orissa. The Sakthinagar distillery division has installed an Ethanol plant with an annual capacity of 50,000 litres per day in June 2003. The company has 3 units with crushing capacities of 6000 TCD, 4000 TCD and 2750 TCD respectively totalling to 12,750 TCD.

Sakhti Auto Components (SACL) is its wholly owned subsidiary. During 1997, this new disamatic foundry wing commenced production with SG Iron Casting and Graded Iron Casting with an annual capacity of 2600 MTA and 1000 MTA respectively. Both the capacities were increased to 14400 TPA and 9600 TPA respectively. SSL’s investment in this subsidiary is Rs.51 cr. and SACL is all set to turn the corner in FY07 with a net profit of about Rs.10 cr.

For 30th June ending FY05, SSL increased its sales by 114% to Rs.619 cr. and posted a net profit of Rs.27 cr. against net loss of Rs.25 cr. in the previous year. During Q2FY06, its net profit has taken a quantum jump of 185% to Rs.20 cr. from Rs.7 cr. in Q2FY05. During 9 months of FY06, sales advanced by 75% to Rs.381 cr., net profit shot up by a whopping 549% to Rs.28.9 cr.

Its equity capital is Rs.31.4 cr. With reserves of Rs.299 cr., the book value of the share works out to Rs.105. Its debt-equity ratio is 1.7:1 and the value of the gross block is a whopping Rs.635 cr. The promoters hold 38% in its equity capital, FIIs hold 29%, non-promoter corporate holding is 8%, domestic institutions hold 3% and government holding is 3% leaving 18% with the investing public.

SSL has 35 MW co-generation project at its Sakthinagar sugar unit and a 2 MW co-generation plant at the Sivaganga sugar unit.

SSL is busy setting up a new sugar mill of 3000 TCD together with a 25 MW co-generation plant as a greenfield project. A 35 MW co-generation plant is to be set up at its sugar unit in Padamathur Village, Sivaganga and 25 MW at Sakthinagar, Bhavani Taluk, and Erode District.
Further, the cane crushing capacity of its Sakthinagar sugar unit in Erode District is being enhanced from 6000 TCD to 9000 TCD. The process for setting up a beverage project with Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages is complete and the plant is ready for operation.

SSL has plans to raise US$ 50 million (about Rs.230 cr.) to fund its expansion plans. Of the total capital that the company would raise, Rs.150 cr. would be spent to set up two co-generation plants and the remaining amount would be spent to set up a new sugar mill.

The sugar industry is in the pink of health with a significant increase in production in FY06 compared to the previous period. Going forward, the industry is also expected to witness shortfall in supply in the next couple of years. Top players are initiating expansion plans and contemplate good growth in production and profitability in coming years on account of the bumper sugarcane crop. A significant cut in European Union subsidy and the drought in major sugar producing countries like Thailand and strong price movements in neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh augur well for the future prospects of the Indian sugar industry.

India’s sugar output in the sugar season year to September 2006 is likely to be around 18.5 million tonnes as against 13 million tonnes, a year ago. Strong sugar demand and a booming export market will boost sugar production, which is likely to rise to 21-22 million tonnes in the year to September 2007. The higher sugar output is likely to be exported, which is likely to increase to 1.5 million tonnes next year. The domestic demand, too, is expected to increase industry sources say.SSL is increasing the FII limit upto 50% of the paid-up equity capital of the company. Recently, Deutsche Bank has picked up 16, 20,000 shares from the open market aggregating to 5.16% of the share capital. Total foreign holding has now gone upto 28.8%. The counter has been attracting hectic activity with substantial investment buying.

SSL is all set to post a net profit of Rs.100 cr. after extraordinary write off of Rs.34 cr. in the current year. The EPS before extraordinary expense could work out to Rs.43. The share trades at a forward P/E of just 6 against the industry average P/E of 24 leaving tremendous scope for the share to rise handsomely. The 52-week high and the low of the share has been Rs.275/ 64.

MY TAKE : STOCK SHLD BE BOUGHT AFT A BIT OF CORRECTION.....235 ACTS A GOOD SHORT TERM SUPPORT....30% CAN BE BOUGHT ARND THOSE LEVELS N REST ARND 190

Saturday, May 13, 2006

SUTLEJ IND - HIDDEN VALUE

Equity: Rs 10.6 crore FY06 EPS: Rs 37 Textile Units: Rajasthan Textile Mills, Chenab Textile Mills Fabric Unit: Damanganga Fabrics Last Dividend : Rs 3.75 per share Promoter and PCB Holding: 75 per cent FY06 Book Value: Rs 240 per share Value of Stock Portfolio: Rs 370 crore or Rs 370 per share
Price Trigger: Group consolidation under-way as the scions of Late Mr. G D Birla, get ready to pass the baton to the third generation Birlas.
Excellent Financials
The KK Birla run Sutlej Industries has reported an excellent performance for the FY06 with EPS rising to Rs 37 as against Rs 16 in FY05. The FY06 numbers however include a one time exceptional income of Rs 12 crore, which arose as a result of the inter-se disposal of shares in Century Textiles to Mr. BK Birla.

Consequently, 310000 shares were sold over to a group company of Mr. BK Birla as a part of unlocking cross holdings in group companies of the Birla families.
Sutlej already owns a huge portfolio of Investments, which include Chambal Fertilisers, Zuari Industries, Pilani Investments, Upper Ganges and Oudh Sugar. This portfolio at today's prices is worth Rs 375 crore.
An Equity base of Rs 10.6 crore and a CMP of Rs 381, works out to a market capitalisation of a mere Rs 370 crore. This seems to be a gross undervaluation for the Rs 650 crore textile business of Sutlej Industries, as the Value of Investments held on hand alone is worth Rs 370 crore. So the textile business is effectively available free of cost.

De-merger in the final stages
Realising the under-valuation, the Sutlej Board has decided to hive off the textiles business into Sutlej Textile Industries Limited (STIL) and retain invesments in Sutlej Industries.
Each shareholder of Sutlej Industries will be given one share of STIL foc, for each share held by them in Sutlej Industries. Consequently, both companies will be listed separately.
I would expect the Sutlej Industries scrip to trade close to the NAV of Rs 375-380 per share, just like a close ended fund like MSGF trades or the more illustrious Tata Investments trade.
The STIL scrip on a conservative basis should trade at Rs 250 or so. Thus there will be tremendous unlocking of value.

Here's a backgrounder to the de-merger scheme:
THE Rs 650-crore Sutlej Industries Ltd, a member of the K.K. Birla Group of companies, has decided to transfer all its textile activities into a wholly owned subsidiary, which has been named Sutlej Textiles and Industries Ltd.

The board has decided that one share of Sutlej Textiles and Industries would be given to the shareholders for every one share of Sutlej Industries.

The appointed date for the scheme to come into effect has been fixed for July 1, 2005. The valuation was done by N.M. Raiji & Co and the fairness opinion was provided by Ernst & Young.

At present, Sutlej Industries has three factories located in Rajasthan, Jammu and Gujarat. For the year ended March 31, 2005, the company registered a turnover of Rs 650 crore (Rs 525 crore).

The company's net profit for FY06 has come out to Rs 37 crore (Rs 16 crore). Meanwhile, Sutlej Industries has commenced the manufacture of readymade garments and home furnishings business at its Damanganga Unit.

The company has appointed Ernst & Young to advice on its organisational and corporate restructuring. Sutlej Industries is mostly into spinning and weaving of cotton, synthetic and blended yarn. It has doubled its production capacity from 85 lakh metre per year to 170 lakh metres.

The expansion programme cost around Rs 65 crore and has brought the third textile unit under the operations of Sutlej. The three units are: the Rajasthan Textile Mills, Chenab Cotton Mills and Damanganga Fabrics.

Sutlej Industries is managed by Mr Chandra Sekhar Nopany, grandson of Mr K.K. Birla and son of Ms Nandini Nopany. Mr Nopany is the Vice-Chairman of the company.

Three other Birla factions led by Mr Aditya Birla, Mr B.K Birla and Mr S.K. Birla are already in the readymade garments business in a big way. Their companies are Grasim, Century and Birla VXL, respectively.

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

STOCKS COVERAGE

KIRLOSKAR ELECT...ADVISED ON MONDAY AT 141....WAS UP 8% TODAY....GOOD VOLUMES SEEN....TARGET 180 IN 15-20 DAYS

SANJIVANI PARENTAL...15% UP TODAY.....THOSE HOLDING CAN CONTINUE HOLDING...I MIGHT BOOK SOME PROFIT ARND 165

ANJANI FABRICS...THE GAME HAS SUPPOSE TO BE STARTED....3 CIRCUIT FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS....HOLD IT TIGHT.....2 MONTHS PLAY

MRPL...SUGGESTED ARND 53 ON FRIDAY IS QUOTING AT 62....ALL TIME HIGH.....KEEP HOLDING....MIGHT CROSS 70-75 SOON

IDBI N NEYVELI R TRADING WITH GOOD VOLUMES....A MUST BUY FOR LONG TERM HOLDERS....VALUE PLAY

PARAS PETRO....SUGGESTED ARND.53 HIT .80 TODAY...PROFIT BOOKING IS ADVISED....BUY AGAIN ARND .55 LEVELS

EASTERN SILK UP 20% TODAY........TOUCHED280 TODAY...SUGGESTED ARND 165 LEVELS 2 MONTHS BCK.....KEEEP HOLDING.

S KUMARS...BOUGHT AT 58.88....EXPECTED TO HIT 75 IN A MONTH....ONLY FOR RISK TAKERS...GOOD VOLUMES R TAKING PLACE ON THIS COUNTER

whirlpool.....keeep holding it....start booking profit post 50 levels

su-raj diamonds...interview with MD

CMD at Su-Raj Diamonds, Jatin Mehta says, the growth has come only in the jewellery segment of the company's business. The jewellery business has got the company about Rs 650 crore, Rs 200 crore more than last year, while the diamond about Rs 550 crore, same as last year, he informs.
Mehta says the company's topline will grow this year, but the bottomline will depend up on gold prices as well as the dollar-rupee movement. If gold prices go anywhere close to USD 1000, then the company's margins will come under pressure, he says.
For future plans, he says the company will continue to focus on its jewellery business and may even open a subsidary in the US

Q: Break up your sales between jewellery and diamond sales this year?
A: The growth is only in the jewellery segment of our business. Jewellery business got us about Rs 650 crore and diamond about Rs 550 crore.

Q: What were these figures last year?
A: Last year, diamonds were at the same level and jewellery was around Rs 450 crore. This means Rs 450 crore has gone upto Rs 650 crore for our jewellery business

Q: Given this growth, what do you reckon will happen in FY07? Can you better this 20% top and bottomline growth?
A: We will be able to continue the topline growth, but the bottomline will depend on gold prices as well as the dollar-rupee movement.

Q: Have you seen any pressure on your margins in this quarter?
A: Not yet. But we do believe if gold goes above USD 700, close to USD 1000, then we will be under pressure.

Q: How do you plan to deal with this, because gold is not showing any signs of cooling off in the near future?
A: As far as orders are concerned, the company has enough of them. But we will not be able to increase the total percentage, because the raw material prices will go up, but not the labour price. We will have to see how the customers are going to respond to the whole issue.

Q: Any retail expansion plans that you have lined out for FY07 and will that ratio between jewellery and diamonds change then?
A: Only the jewelley component will continue to keep growing because that is where the company’s focus is on. So there will be no change in focus as far as the company is concerned, but we do plan to open a subsidiary in US

Q: What about those retail stores you were planning?
A: I do not think we were planning any retail stores, we are a B2B company.

Q: That means you were not thinking of any retail stores?
A: No, but we have a lot of B2B operations that are our associate companies within India

CENTURY ENKA....BOOK PROFITS

WAS ADVISED ARND 170 10 DAYS BCK.....200 RIGHT NOW.....ONE SHLD BOOK PROFIT....RESULTS HAVE DISAPPOINTED ME...OVERVALUED AT CURRENT MARKET PRICE.....I EXPECT IT TO BE A UNDER PERFORMER FROM HERE NOW....NOT MUCH OF ACTION IS EXPECTED ON 07 GOING FORWARD

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

SPIC TURNAROUND

SPIC is among the oldest south based fertilizer companies and was promoted by Dr. A.C. Muthiah, one of the biggest industrialists from South India. SPIC was a blue chip company in the early Eighties but the ambitions of its promoters to make it bigger & bigger by spreading into unrelated diversifications, which let it into a debt trap losing heavily and proving incapable to meet its increased interest burden and depreciation cost.
SPIC’s business can be broadly divided into its four divisions:
(1) Fertilizer (2) Pharmaceuticals (3) Engineering & Construction Services (4) Agribusiness


Besides these businesses, SPIC has made several strategic investments in subsidiaries and joint ventures such as
Indo Jordan Chemicals Co. Ltd., Jordan
SPIC Fertilizers & Chemicals FZE, Dubai
SPIC Petrochemicals Ltd., India
Indital Chemicals Ltd., India
Tamil Nadu Petro Products Ltd., India
Technip India Ltd.
SPIC JEL Engineering Construction Ltd., India
Gulf SPIC General Trading & Contracting Co. WLL, Kuwait
Tuticorn Alkali Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd., India

Manali Petrochemical Ltd., India
SPEL Semi-conductor Ltd., India


Despite such widespread activities, it is really so sad that the SPIC stock was available at a throwaway price of just Rs.20 six months back, Rs.22 - Rs.25 three months back and Rs.30 now.
Despite doing business in billions, the SPIC management could not provide the thrust nor could it succeed to make a good investment in any out of the many.
It is also sad from the management perspective that the SPIC share is languishing when Construction & Engineering are at its zenith. Why did its ventures in this line of business not flourish? Again, there is a big boom in real estates. Why is the company sitting on huge land holdings and not succeeded in clinching any deals, which could take care of its unmanageable debt? These are issues that Dr. A C Muthiah should have taken seriously to enhance shareholders value.
Five years ago, Century Textiles was lying low at Rs.25 despite its several arms like SPIC with Rayon, Paper & Pulp, Cement, Textiles, Shipping, etc. just as SPIC today. But today, Century Textiles has bloomed with its success plan although its Textiles Division is still incurring losses. But its share prices have hit the roof touching Rs.700 from Rs.25.
An elephant never dies so soon. And just as the ocean never dries, a corporate giant like SPIC cannot be written off. Its story is even stronger than Century Textiles but then the question now is Will Dr. Muthiah compare himself with his two competitors like the U.B. group & Murugappa Group who are star performers of South-based industries.
SPIC is one of the largest fertilizer companies manufacturing Urea and Phosphoric fertilizer shown under the plant capacities table.
Interestingly the company’s plants are producing higher than their rated capacities
.
With such huge capacities, the company’s financials have not been commensurate with its size, operations & business as shown in financial highlights.
It is impossible to give detailed product profiles and performances of its various divisions and joint ventures in this article.
The improved performance during the year 2004-05 was on account of one time gain on restructuring of floating rate notes amounting Rs.212.54 cr. There are still many areas, which the SPIC management may take up to restructure to bring the company out of the debt trap either by way of divestment or equity dilution or attracting co-partners.

Equity Capital: Despite its large size, the company’s equity is relatively low at Rs.88 cr. in today’s context.
Reserves: Out of its total Reserves of Rs.1101 cr. if we deduct Rs.781 cr. as Revaluation Reserves, there is a surplus of Rs.320 cr., which can take care of its Profit/ Loss account and carry forward loss of Rs.325 cr. Thus the company’s net worth is yet intact and positive. There is a possibility that this deficit can be set off during the course of the restructuring process without using its surplus.
The company, as stated earlier, is large and its Jordon Fertilizer venture is quite profitable. No sooner the company plans to divest even a few of its arms, it will generate ample funds to liquidate its debts and carried forward losses as happened with Escorts Ltd. earlier and the basis of its recommendation in this column a few weeks back.

Investments: the company has a whopping investment in Shares & Securities, the total sum of which is Rs.1035 cr. at cost some of these investments can fetch handsome profits on divestment like Escorts who divested its Heart Institute for over Rs.500 cr.

Outlook: SPIC once restructured, its future outlook will be quite good. The Fertilizer Policy announced last year will also strengthen all fertilizer units and SPIC will be a major beneficiary.
Market Price: The SPIC stock is worth accumulating at the current market price, which is very cheap like Century Textiles was five years back. It will yield handsome gains for the next generation as its price will shoot up. No sooner the management makes a success of its restructuring plan corping out the carried forward losses and curtail its outstanding loans to a reasonable level.

Conclusion: The SPIC share should be accumulated at the current market price for reaping a good harvest in the years to come as the share of such a giant company is strangely available at throw-away prices in such a booming market

SATNAM OVERSEAS

Satnam Overseas is the undisputed leader in branded Basmati rice with more than 35% market share with reputed brands like Kohinoor, Trophy, Charminar, Rose, Darbar, Shehanshah and Falcon. It is aggressively expanding its presence in the lucrative ready-to-eat foods (RTE) segment and is constantly augmenting its product portfolio. Recently, it has set up a frozen food processing facility at Haryana and has already received orders from Singapore, Mauritius, UK and South Africa. It also has plans to enter into the business of fresh fruits and fruit based snacks and desserts. For FY06, its total revenue grew by 7% to Rs.541 cr. but its net profit increased by 40% to Rs.21.50 cr. due to higher operating margin. This works out to an EPS of Rs.11 on its current equity of Rs.19.60 cr. Considering its future plans and management quality, the scrip is trading relatively cheap than its peers and has the potential to appreciate 25-30% in a years time.

SUJANA UNIVERSAL IND

The shares of Sujana Universal Industries are being acquired by FIIs and HNIs in fairly large quantities. Dealers say the buying in the counter is attributed to the strong numbers put out by SUIL in Q3FY06 and the bright future prospects of the company. SUIL is all set to post an EPS of about Rs.8.5 in FY06 going further to Rs.11 in FY07.
Incorporated in 1986 under the name of Sujana Domestic Appliances, SUIL was formed with an object to manufacture fans, washing machines and other domestic appliances. It was promoted by Y Jithin Kumar and V. Satyanarayana Choudhary. Its brand name ‘Padmini’ enjoys a good reputation in the domestic fan market. The company has three manufacturing units, one in the Hyderabad and two in Medak district of Andhra Pradesh.

SUIL is a well-diversified engineering major engaged in the manufacture of Bearings, Domestic Appliances, Industrial Castings, Auto Components and in the manufacturing of MS Ingots. The main products of the Company consist of fans, bearings, water pumps assembly, piston sets, break discs, wheel discs, MS ingots, etc. It is also involved in the trading of a variety of Steel products and has strong associations with multinationals. The Steel Division’s turnover consists of processed steel and other steel products like MS Castings, MS Rods, MS Angles, MS Flats and TMT Bars.


The Bearing Division of the company has been awarded ISO-9002 certification during 1999-2000, for implementing quality systems as per international standards by Underwriter Laboratories Inc. U.S.A. The company has also set up a wind farm power project of 2 MW in Anathpur Dist. A.P. at a cost of Rs.8.5 cr. assisted by IREDA and internal resources.

For the year ended June FY05, SUIL registered sales of Rs.796 cr. and earned a net profit of Rs.30.9 cr. EPS on the then equity of Rs.20 cr. worked out to Rs.15.5. It has now come out with good numbers during Q3FY06 wherein sales although remained flat at Rs.222 cr. but net profit shot up by over 302% to Rs.9.1 cr. from Rs.2.3 cr. in the same period last year. During the nine months ending 31st March 2006, sales increased marginally to Rs.671 cr. and net profit jumped by 266% to Rs.21.8 cr. from Rs.6 cr. in the corresponding previous period.
Due to the fresh equity allotment to FIIs etc, its equity capital has gone up to Rs.41.4 cr. With reserves of Rs.96.5 cr., the book value of the share works out to Rs.33.3.
According to the equity pattern, FIIs hold 48.3% in its equity capital, promoters hold 15.6% and non-promoter corporate holding is 6.9%. This leaves 29.2% with the investing public.
In a new development, Bennett, Coleman & Co (BCCL) has acquired a 6.5% stake in the company
. FIIs, too, have taken a huge call on the counter. The company plans to focus on precision engineering components including auto components and taper roller bearings, industrial castings and a new range of domestic appliances.
SUIL expects precision engineering components including auto components and industrial castings to be the major drivers of growth in the current year. Its International Trade Division deals mainly in trade of bulk commodities with the Middle East, Far East Asia, Europe and Africa.
There are also excellent opportunities for steel products due to large-scale investments in infrastructure and construction activities and the constant growth in auto and engineering sectors.Based on the first three quarters, SUIL is likely to post an EPS of Rs.8.5 for the year ending June 2006. Currently, the shares of SUIL are available at Rs.30 discounting its estimated EPS of Rs.8.5 for the current year by just 3.5 times and projected EPS of Rs.11 for the next year by only 2.7 times. Applying a reasonable P/E of 6 into its EPS of Rs.8.5 for the current year, the share has all the potential to cross the Rs.50 mark in about six-to-nine months. The 52-week high and the low of the share has been Rs.46/14

Mahindra Ugine Steel (MUSCO)

The counter is a buzz with hectic activity. MUSCO has announced highly encouraging results for FY06 and EPS for the fourth quarter has amounted to Rs.10.8. The EPS for the full year works out to Rs.21. According to circles close to the management, MUSCO is likely to post an EPS of Rs35. in FY07.
Dealers say that the valuation of MUSCO has gone up after merger of its associate company, Pranay Sheet Metal Stamping with itself. The future prospects for MUSCO appear extremely bright in view of the booming automobile and steel industry. Its major expansion is well on course. Its other subsidiaries, Valueline Hotel & Resorts and Console Estate and Investments, too, have merged with MUSCO.
Belonging to the Mahindra & Mahindra Group, MUSCO is a well-known manufacturer of alloy steel. Mahindra & Mahindra promoted it with 49% stake along with Ugine Aciers, France and International Finance Corporation (IFL), Washington. Keshub Mahindra is the Chairman & Anand Mahindra is the Vice-Chairman. The company also has a stampings division to manufacture pressed sheet metal components and assemblies. MUSCO's steel division located at Khopoli is a pioneer and a premier alloy steel producer. It is also a single source supplier to a large number of multinationals and other important customers in India. The stamping division producing automotive stampings is located at Kanhe near Pune.

The products manufactured by it find application in a host of industries like power plant equipment, bearings industry, engineering goods, roll manufacturers, auto, tractor & earthmovers, Indian Railways, fasteners, tube making and Defence among others.
MUSCO has an impressive list of clients, which include BHEL, Crompton Greaves, Siemens, NTPC, Timken, SKF Bearings, FAG Bearings, TISCO, Cummins, Ingersoll Rand, Widia, Otis Elevator, Bharat Forge, Elecon, M&M, L&T John Deere, Volvo, Toyota, Caterpillar, Tractor Engineers, Rane TRW, L&T Komatsu, Eicher, Bharat Forge, Amforge, Hi-Tech Gears, Amtek Auto, Ahmednagar Forging, Kalyani Forge and Sundaram Fasteners among others.
There was sudden revival in the fortunes of the alloy steel industry due to demand by the automobile industry, the prospects of which have improved. With improved productivity and sustained cost cutting exercise, the company performed well in FY06. During this period, whereas sales advanced by 18% to Rs.615 cr., net profit shot up by 44% to Rs.69 cr. After an extraordinary expense of Rs.4 cr., profit amounted to Rs.65 cr. and the EPS was Rs.21 and it declared dividend of 45%. During Q4FY06, net profit jumped over by 133% to Rs.35.2 cr. This indicates its bright financial future in coming quarters.

Due to allotment of fresh shares to Pranay Sheet Metal Stamping and its other subsidiaries, its equity capital has marginally gone up to Rs.32.5 cr. from Rs.31 cr. With reserves of Rs.111 cr., the book value of the share works out to Rs.44.

Seeing to its huge potential, FIIs like Merryll Lynch and HSBC have taken a huge call of 12.8%. The promoters & associates hold 55.7% in its equity. Domestic institutions hold 9.6% and the share of non-promoter corporates is 4.8%. This leaves 17.1% with the investing public.

MUSCO first increased its steel alloy capacity from 90,000 TPA to 120,000 TPA which was further augmented to 180000 TPA. Further expansion will lift the capacity to 2,40, 000 TPA by FY07 at a cost of Rs.95 cr. It has also taken steps to improve the plant layout to optimize process flow, which would result in greater efficiencies and higher yield.
The alloy steel industry has been improving from an almost stagnant level. In keeping pace, MUSCO was able to respond to the market satisfactorily. Due to the demand by user industries, the market is expected to remain buoyant in the next few years. MUSCO is gearing itself to service additional output by increase in production and improvement in productivity, reduction in cycle time as also bettering yield. The surge in the automobile industry augurs well for the stamping division. The company is making every effort to develop a new business of stampings for the automobile industry. Riding high on the booming economy, MUSCO is all set to post an EPS of about Rs.32-35 in FY07. Heavy investment buying by knowledgeable quarters has been noticed in the counter. The shares of MUSCO are currently available at Rs.160 at a P/E of just 7.6 on its FY06 EPS of Rs.21 and a forward P/E of just 5 on its projected EPS of Rs.32 for FY07. Being the M & M Group, MUSCO deserves better discounting. Applying a reasonable P/E of 9, the MUSCO share has all the potential to cross the Rs.290 mark in the next six-to-nine months, resulting in an appreciation of over 85%. The 52-week high and the low of the share have been Rs.165/ 85

Hester Pharmaceuticals Ltd

Hester Pharmaceuticals Ltd (HPL) was incorporated in 1987 as a private ltd. company but converted into public ltd. company in 1993. It produces and markets veterinary and pharmaceutical products viz., Animal Health products, Poultry Vaccines, Poultry Diagnostic, Laboratory Kits and Reagents. Today it is one of the largest poultry vaccine manufacturers in India and the only company from India to export poultry vaccine. It has the licence to produce 12 types of live poultry vaccines and 28 types of Inactivated poultry vaccines. It produces vaccines for Fowl Pox, Fowl Cholera, Bronchitis, Gumboro, AE, LT, REO, EDS and Newcastle diseases besides combination vaccines. The company has good presence in the South mainly in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. As it is a biotech company producing biologicals, HPL will soon be rechristened as Hester Bioscience Ltd. to reflect its activities more accurately.


HPL’s state-of-the-art manufacturing facility is located at Mehasana, near Ahmedabad in Gujarat. It holds ISO-9001:2000 & GMP certification from the drug authorities. Production procedures for poultry vaccines based on in-house advanced capabilities are being followed in the areas of virus propagation in specific pathogen-free embryos, tissue culture, batch fermentation of bacteria, lyophilization, emulsion preparation etc. Importantly, the company is the exclusive distributor for Merial Inc, the worlds largest Animal health company for marketing its complete range of poultry vaccines in India. Besides, HPL also represents Synbiotics of USA exclusively for poultry disease diagnostic kits. It also offers seromonitoring services under which it helps producers evaluate the immune response to administered vaccines and/or to obtain evidence of flock exposure to field strains.

In order to cater to the growing demand for poultry vaccines, HPL has embarked on a Rs.25 cr. expansion plan to increase its capacity by 300% i.e. 4 times from 120 cr. doses to 500 cr. doses of poultry vaccines by Oct 2006. This expansion will enable the company to manufacture not only the current poultry vaccines which are in high demand, but will also enable it to add a few specialty poultry vaccines. In future it also intends to diversify into the production of cattle and sheep vaccines in the new expanded facility. To fund its expansion, it has already raised around Rs.3 cr. through preferential allotment of around 2 lakh shares at Rs.150 per share and is now coming out with 2:5 right issue at Rs.70 per share. For FY06, its total revenue increased by 25% to Rs.20 cr. but its net profit grew 12% to Rs.4.43 cr. posting an EPS of Rs.12 on its current equity of Rs.3.71 cr. Considering the company’s aggressive plan and special thrust on exports we estimate it to post a topline of Rs.28 cr. and PAT of Rs.7 cr. for FY07. This will work out to an EPS of Rs.13 on its fully diluted equity of Rs.5.20 cr

MY VIEWS : THE SHARE HAS GOOD SUPORT LEVEL ARND 100 AND FACES RESISTANCE ARND 150 LEVELS....FAIRLY VALUED ARND 130-150 LEVELS.

FIIs are cautiously bullish

India may no longer be a hot destination for FII money as most FII strategists are tacitly underweight on India. Their big concern however is the rising interest rates and plateauing growth. J P Morgan, Citigroup, CLSA, Morgan Stanley are some proponents of such a thoughts. They are unanimous in their thinking that the euphoria shall cool off and some other emerging markets may attract greater attention in coming months…
J P Morgan’s Asian Regional Strategist, Adrian Mowat is of the opinion that other emerging markets look more positive compared to India. His advice to his clients is pull out some money from India and park it at Taiwan, China, Singapore, South Africa, and even Russia. But he also feels that the downside here is limited as the huge Indian savings shall flow into the Indian equity markets in a bid for higher returns post inflation.
Jim Walker, chief economist at CLSA, sees the euphoria dying down for India but is yet confident about the Indian economy's growth. He has other macro economic global factors worrying him. Tightening of monetary conditions globally, especially in the US shall add to the woes of emerging markets. "It is not the rate rises but action and monetary aggregates in the US, especially the very high power of monetary base that's been slowing down for three years and shall give financial markets more difficulty as the year progresses in terms of the real economy taking more of liquidity. Financial markets are going to find it hard to move up against that. In the past when that had been the case in USA, emerging markets did not do very well."Citigroup's Hans Goetti may not be that bearish despite India being expensive on the P/E count as he feels that the key to the Indian market's rise rests with fund flows which have so far been good.Morgan Stanley’s Malcolm Wood may be a little underweight on India but feels that the global appetite for Indian stocks is not through and shall remain unabated.

short term calls

whirlpool recommened a week bck at 30 is quoting arnd 41.5 now...35% up

accumulation is going in ANJANI FABRICS......KEEP A CLOSE WATCH...still arnd my recommended levels

neyveli lignite going quite strong....hit a new high with good volumes....recommended at 80 a week bck.....can hit 130-150 as long it keep trading with good volumes...up 20% frm my recomm levels......long term targets are TOO HIGH....very few stocks in A group quoting below a PE of 20.....attracting attention of many investors n HNI n FII

trigyne tech up on circuit since monday....a call was given on monday mrning..but it if u can

some action is expected in kirloskar elect.....keep a watch on it

easun rey up 10%...maybe another 10% on the cards

HOTEL LEELA UPDATE ON FUTURE PROSPECTS

Hotel Leelaventure Ltd has posted a net profit of Rs 100.81 crore for the year ended March 31, 2006, thus growing at close to 119 per cent. The company is also planning to invest close to Rs 1,200 crore in expansion and to spread its footprint across the country. It plans to raise close to Rs 220 crore out of this through private equity, about Rs 320 crore through foreign currency convertible bonds and the rest through long-term loans. “We plan to spread our wings across the country. Our Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune and Delhi projects will ensure the same,” said chairman C.P. Krishnan Nair.Total revenue stood at Rs 343.69 crore, a growth of 27 per cent compared with Rs 271.33 crore in fiscal 2005. The company expects its profit to touch Rs 200 crore next year. “The industry has grown at 20-25 per cent this year. We expect to double that growth,” said Vivek Nair, vice-chairman and MD, Leela Group. Leela is also looking at ventures in Jaipur and Calcutta, Nair added.Meanwhile, Board of directors of Hotel Leela Venture Ltd has approved the purchase of additional land in Bangalore to expand its facilities. This will enable ‘Hotel Leela Palace’ to add another 30 rooms to the new wing and the expansion is expected to be completed by October 2006, the company said in a release. According to C P Krishnan Nair, chairman, Leela Palaces and Resorts, the Bangalore property is set to add another 144 rooms and an international restaurant to the existing hotel.The construction of an additional wing to house the new rooms commenced in May 2005 and will be operational by October 2006. The investment planned is to the tune of Rs 40 crore. The expansion is in response to the market demand, if the buoyant traffic inflow of the business traveller is any indicator. Our expansion is well in place to cater to the demands of tomorrow, he added.
Presently, the Leela Palace has six floors of 256 rooms and suites. Commenting on the expansion programme, the company’s president, Peter Leitgeb, said, “With the strategic investment in expansion, we will enhance the hotel’s appeal and position not only in Bangalore but in the country as well. Our effort is to increase the scope and scale of the ‘Essence of India’ through a larger and luxurious Leela Palace, Bangalore.”Hotel Leela Venture is also eyeing the lucrative business of managing hotel properties abroad. The group has now set its eyes on West Asia, London and Singapore. Peter Leitgeb, group president, however, made clear that the group is not interested in equity participation. “We will only look at management contracts,” he told DNA Money. In the West Asia region, the group is concentrating on Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Bahrain, which are key source\n markets for the Leela Goa and the more recently acquired Leela Kovalam Beach in Thiruvananthapuram.In fact, Leela is pulling out all stops to make the brand a recognised one in West Asia. Kempinski of Germany, which is managing the Emirates Palace hotel in Abu Dhabi, is already a well-established name there. All future Leela properties in India will also have the Kempinski affiliation, making it easier for West Asian customers to connect to the brand. The company is already in talks with two property developers in Dubai, Leitgeb said, adding, “It will be a superior deluxe hotel in Dubai under the Leela brand name.” The group is scouting for partners in London, where it is setting up a marketing office. It will also enter into a management contract in Singapore “provided we get the right partner,” said Leitgeb . \n\t\tTalk is cheap. Use Yahoo! Messenger to make PC-to-Phone calls. ",1]
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Presently, the Leela Palace has six floors of 256 rooms and suites. Commenting on the expansion programme, the company’s president, Peter Leitgeb, said, “With the strategic investment in expansion, we will enhance the hotel’s appeal and position not only in Bangalore but in the country as well. Our effort is to increase the scope and scale of the ‘Essence of India’ through a larger and luxurious Leela Palace, Bangalore.”Hotel Leela Venture is also eyeing the lucrative business of managing hotel properties abroad. The group has now set its eyes on West Asia, London and Singapore. Peter Leitgeb, group president, however, made clear that the group is not interested in equity participation. “We will only look at management contracts,” he told DNA Money. In the West Asia region, the group is concentrating on Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Bahrain, which are key source markets for the Leela Goa and the more recently acquired Leela Kovalam Beach in Thiruvananthapuram.In fact, Leela is pulling out all stops to make the brand a recognised one in West Asia. Kempinski of Germany, which is managing the Emirates Palace hotel in Abu Dhabi, is already a well-established name there. All future Leela properties in India will also have the Kempinski affiliation, making it easier for West Asian customers to connect to the brand. The company is already in talks with two property developers in Dubai, Leitgeb said, adding, “It will be a superior deluxe hotel in Dubai under the Leela brand name.” The group is scouting for partners in London, where it is setting up a marketing office. It will also enter into a management contract in Singapore “provided we get the right partner,” said Leitgeb

Monday, May 08, 2006

keep a watch....MONDAY PICK

KEEP A WATCH ON KIRLOSKAR ELECT.....590052
TRIGYN TECH.......517562

HOLDING PERIOD 20 DAYS

Sunday, May 07, 2006

results of the stocks tht i have been tracking closely

my views on the results tht i have ben tracking lately...rating have been given according to the future visibility...past performance......price movement......holding structure n valuations

SIMPLEX CASTING…results r good….PAT has shown 100% growth…though future will depend on the orders frm railway industry….since the railway industry is doing good….guess simplex shld also do good….market performer…new orders might spark thegrowth….keep a watch on the announcement……2.5 STAR

HIRAN ORGOCHEM…..excellent results…..exponential growth….for the coming 2 yrs management is trying for 100% growth….available at 5 PE on a EPS of 19…..definately shld be bought on every decline….quoting cheap…..out-performer…..minimum 75% appreciation can be expected ……3.5 STAR

KARUTURI…..good growth…100% for the past 2 yrs…..fairly valued at current price…100% growth expected for the next 2 yrs….wait for a correction to buy into this….good pick at 100 levels…..2.5 STAR

NATIONAL STEEL …..good results….40% growth…..EPS of 7……FY 06-07 will be much better as expansion results will kick in…book value of 45…definitely a multibagger if held for 15-18 months…wait for a price of 25 something….have run up frm 20 to 30……3.5 STAR

WS IND….profit has raised frm 2.1 crs to 4.3 crs…..growth is expected to be good in the next few yrs since power industry future is bright….target given by sharekhan is 120……one shld accumulate this arnd 53-55….good support base according to me……….2.5 STAR

JUPITER BIO…….pat has raised frm 14.15 crs to 20 crs…..company is undervalued considering the EPS of 23……one can buy arnd 130-135…….2.5 STAR

Syncom formulation….profit has dropped frm 7.12 cr to 5.47 cr…..promoters were allotted shares at a price of 105 somewhere in nov-dec…..those holding shld continue holding…..can be bought in small qty arnd 50 by risk takers…….EPS arnd 10……2 star

PARADYNE INFO…..not much of info available….EPS of arnd 8….small investment can be considered arnd 64 levels……2.5 star

VICEROY HOTELS….profit has fallen compared to last yr….where most of the hotel sectors are showing good growth……viceroy hotel has shown disappointing results…EPS of mere .75 paise……..better to keep off frm such stocks according to me

INDIAN SUCROSE….has shown 50% growth in net profit….EPS of 10….a small company….can be bought arnd 43 levels in small qty…….2.5 star

MACHINO PLASTIC…….results been moderate…..fairly priced at current levels…..good support level arnd 52 though…….2 star

MANALI PETRO……PAT N SALES have shown 50% growth…..EPS of 2.97…..can be accumulated arnd 18 levels…..market performer……2.5 star

ICSA….profit has raised frm 3.76 to 17.46 crs….EPS of 30…..…been securing many orders…future is looking quite bright…. good support arnd 515 levels….3 star

LAKSHMI ELECTRICAL CONTROL SYStem…..PROFIT arnd 5.3 frm 4.26…25% growth…EPS of 21….fairly priced arnd current price….promoter holding of juss 20% is something one shld be aware off…..2 star

ITL…..Q4 has shown 100% growth compared to the prev qtr of the same yr n 400% growth compared to the last yr…..for the full yr profit has been 1.34 crs compared to 40 lakhs of last yr….EPs arnd 4.12…..has good support arnd 35 levels….. For FY07, ITL is likely to acheive turnover of RS. 35 CRS. and NP of RS.3.65 CRS. which will give EPS of 12…..3 star

BATLIBOI…RESULTS HAS BEEN QUITE GOOD….FRM 5.41 TO 8.56…EPS OF 6.31…fairly valued at current levels….wait for a correction to buy into this….80% promoters holding

SANGAM INDIA….profit doubled compared to last yr….frm 12 to 24 crs….eps of 8.5….fairly valued at current price….a good buy arnd 66-73 levels….3 star

Century enka……a disappointing yr for century enka due to higher raw material prices n fuel prices….been a under performer…..sell n wait for a price below 150 to buy for a period of minimum 2 yrs…2 star

KARUR KCP…..NET PROFIT GREW FRM 4.7 TO 8 CRS….COMPANY IS GETTING MANY ORDERS…..FUTURE IS BRING….EPS OF 8 FOR FY06…3.5 star

SUTLEJ IND…..EXCELLENT RESULTS…PROFITS RAISED FRM 15.5 TO 27 CRS…eps OF ARND 30….shld be bought at decline…..fairly priced at current levels….shld be bought below 300………3.5 star

SATNAM OVERSEAS….results have been good…have shown 35% growth….EPS of 10 for the current yr….profit has increased frm 15.5 to 21.5 CRS…..shld be bought at declines…..good support arnd 78-80 levels…3.5 star

Visaka…..profit has shown 100% growth compared to last yr….on a EPS of 19…stocks seems to be under valued……shld be bought at every decline…good support arnd 125 levels….3 star

TINPLATE….DEC QTR results have been really good….for the past 2 yrs its showing 50% growth….for a EPS of 11.36 the stock seems to be under valued…expansion is going on…stock is an excellent bet at 80 levels…….3.5 star

Walchandnagar….march qtr been really gr8…EPS of the last 2 qtrs wrks out to be 16.5….seems to be richly valued at the current price….a good pick arnd 535 levels…..wait for decline……3.5 star

Hyderabad ind…..profit rosed frm 9 crs to 28 crs….EPS of 50….stock seems to be quite cheap looking at the future going fwd…..shld be bought at every dip…good support arnd 425 levels…4 star

HOTEL LEELA…..there has been growth of 125% plus….frm 44.46 crs to 100.8 crs…EPS of 14….profit suppose to double in FY07….a good buy arnd 300 levels…..wait for decline to accumulate….4 star

INDOCO REMIDIES…..march results have been bad…sales have declined compared to the dec n sep quarters…PAT juss 1.4 compared to 7.79 n 6.42 of dec n sep….buy arnd a price of 300…wait for a good correction…fairly valued at current price….3 star

KSB pumps…..results for march quarter been good….increase in 15% sales compared to dec qtr…n PAT increased by 50%....EPS can be expected atleast 30…shld be accumulated arnd 375-400 levels….have run up a lot…wait for correction…..richly valued at current price….3.5 star

Macmillian…results been fine….good support arnd 450 levels…..yr low of 392…..safe bet..buy on decline….3 star

SURYA PHARMA….profits have doubled frm 11.5 to 24 crs….on a EPS of 21.5 it is quoting quite cheap… good support arnd 135….4 star

Thursday, May 04, 2006

STOCK COVERUP

raipur alloys suggested at 70....40 days bck had touched 200 3-4 days bck.....partial profit booking was advised at those levels....i sold all my shares today

hiran orgochem suggested arnd 102 few days bck.......was up arnd 144 today....35% profit booking is suggested.....i am holding all the qtys for long term

SREI infra was up 20% today.....one can book 50% profit arnd 70 levels

WHIRLPOOL suggested arnd 30 4-5 days bck touched all time high 37.15 today....was 20% up....i will continue to hold it as the targets tlked abt r high

RELIANCE COMM suggested arnd 300had touched a high of 344.......am looking forward for a target of 400 in short term

keep a track on zen tech......easun rey.......good news r flowing

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

block busters

HIRAN ORGOCHEM up 13% today...125 right now.....keep holding....was suggested at 105 a month bck

IDBI...WHIRLPOOL...RELIANCE COMM.....ALL SHOWING STRENGTH...was recommended last week

NATIONAL STEEL suggested arnd 20....2 months bck is bck now....15% at 32.5....keep holding for a yr to earn solid returns

GUPTA SYNTH arnd 200 now...suggested at 140 n KARUTURI AT ANOTHER CONSI CIRCUIT.....those holding can continue holding......wait for fresh exposure

RAIPUR ALLOYS suggested many times over have surged frm 70 to 200 today...in juss a month time.....one can book 50% profit now.....i juss hold 35% of my original qty now....2 block deals happened in this counter